Commanding Position? A View from a Red Sox Fan

I don't normally cover the Boston Red Sox here, but a good friend of mine wrote this up so I thought I would share. He makes some good points with some concrete "numbers" evidence.

Commanding Position?

Are the Red Sox poised to spread their lead in the AL East? The numbers appear to support it. Much has been made about the Red Sox this year. Be it the lofty expectation set on them by the fan base, or the media, or the high priced talent they run out there on a nightly basis. There is an expected level of production which hangs over every pitch.

Much has been documented about the struggles of the first half of this season. David Ortiz has been clawing his way through a slump ravaged start to the season. Dice-K brought another title to his motherland, but has failed to bring much more than a Zito-like, or more recently Wang-esque, drop-off. Jed Lowrie has shown more in his absence, evidenced by the cavernous difference between he and his replacements, than we expected when he got hurt.

Yet through all of this the Red Sox have posted a .609 winning percentage.

So instead of treading the ground of the ‘oh so recent’ past, let’s look at the immediate future. Currently the Red Sox sit in first place with a .609 winning percentage. Followed by: NY .551, TOR .535, and TB 514 (I will leave Baltimore out as they are 10 games out of first place, while posting a .464 winning percentage.)

The funny thing when you look at the numbers is this: We are talking about teams who have four of the five top run differentials in baseball, four of the top twelve winning percentages, and teams who average 6.5 on any of the Power Rankings. The only real disparity is this, Strength of Schedule.

When you look at the S.O.S for the four teams there is a noticeable gap. BOS .513, NY .500, TOR .495, TB .496. The Red Sox have played by far the toughest schedule in the division. This bodes well for the Red Sox between now and the mid-way point of the season.

Let’s take a look at three key factors:

1. The Red Sox have a S.O.S over the next six series of .435. This is key when you look at the balance of S.O.S in the division. Over the next six series for the other three teams their S.O.S: NY .513, TOR .515, TB .514.
2. What other team on the planet can remove a starter like Daisuke Matsuzaka, 18-3 last year, and insert John ‘friggin’ Smoltz, no resume needed.
3. In the month of June David Ortiz has begun to look normal. While his HR production is still low, he has amassed a .308 average with 5 HR 10 R 12 RBI and an O.P.S of 1,054.

These factors combined with the return of Jed Lowrie, in a couple of weeks, should be enough to bolster the Red Sox, not only through the soft schedule of the next nineteen games, but into the beginning of the second half where the schedule out of the break gets a bit more intimidating, but with the cushion which could be gained in that time it should be clearly manageable.

By the way, over the next couple of weeks TOR plays two series against TB, and one against NY. Someone has to loose those games.

By: Chris Laffey - chris_laffey@comcast.net